Climate deal |  Much work remains before a climate agreement can be signed in Copenhagen. Cautious optimism was heard from panelists at a recent Brussels seminar, despite the pessimism apparent in the negotiating rounds. The seminar had been organized by the Swedish Society of Politics and Business, SPN, a business and politics network under the Swedish Enterprise umbrella.

Less that two months remain before COP15, the UN climate change summit in Copenhagen. In mid-December, world leaders will attempt to cement a climate agreement to replace the current Kyoto Protocol. Ambition and anticipation are in good supply.

But the signals from previous negotiating rounds have been pessimistic. The meeting in Bangkok that just ended was perhaps a glimmer of light, since the talks did not bog down in procedural issues regarding the text, as happened in previous meetings in Bonn. Although some of the most central issues are deadlocked. The Bangkok meeting delivered small successes in, for example, chipping away the industrialized countries’ aversion for mandatory targets for emission reductions and the question of how to finance adaptation to climate change in developing countries.

So can we expect that the talks will actually produce a new global climate deal? To answer that, a seminar was organized at the European Parliament last week (7 October) by the Brussels branch of the Swedish Society of Politics and Business, SPN, a business and politics network under the Swedish Enterprise umbrella. . On the panel were representatives of the Swedish EU presidency, European industry and the European Parliament.

“Keeping in mind how much political prestige is invested in the issue, there’s sure to be an agreement. But we must not forget that COP15 won’t be the last meeting by a long shot. After Copenhagen awaits a lot of detail work in order to construct an ambitious global climate deal. What’s important is to establish a framework in Copenhagen, and get into detail later,” said Russel Mills, Global Director Energy & Climate Change Policy at Dow Chemical, also representing European Chemical Industry Council, CEFIC.

Zofia Tucinska, environment counselor at the Swedish permanent representation to the EU, agreed with Mr Mills.

“An ambitious international climate treaty is top priority for the Swedish EU presidency. Sweden will do everything possible to get a clear and comprehensible EU mandate by the end of October to be more concrete and robust leading up to and during Copenhagen.”

Zofia Tucinska affirmed that an agreement probably will be reached but that it will not resolve all the issues. What is important is to get on board all the big players, especially the US, and also that flexibility be integrated.

British MEP Linda McAvan was also cautiously positive. She too saw Copenhagen as an important springboard for the upcoming work with the details.

“The EU has to be more assertive about a 30% reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020, not the 20% on the table right now. This would put pressure on the other parties,” according to Linda McAvan.

Swedish Enterprise supports the EU’s ambition in reducing greenhouse gases but is uneasy about the negotiating situation.

“For an international climate deal to be successful, the agreement must be global with all the developed countries accepting similar emission reductions. Competitive neutrality is decisive for both growth and the climate,” said Birgitta Resvik, climate and energy expert at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, also at the seminar.

Mårten Bergman