Getting from ambition to result, greenly

Report |  | Nationally based measures to limit carbon dioxide emissions can paradoxically increase global emissions, a new Confederation of Swedish Enterprise report says.

Stefan Fölster of Swedish Enterprise wants to see measures with lasting effect on the climate instead of trumpeted measures designed to sooth Western guilt.
Photo: Erland Segerstedt

A basic misconception permeates the process leading up to the Copenhagen climate agreement in December. Ever since the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, emissions have increased with climate policies unchanged.

“The recoil effect in climate politics is being underestimated. A direct recoil is when energy savings prompt increased consumption. If Europe alone uses less oil, keeping world market prices down, it will be more profitable for others to use more,” explains Stefan Fölster, head economist at Confederation of Swedish Enterprise.

To seriously dent global emissions, the Copenhagen agreement must include the global aspect of national efforts.

“If the recoil effect is not recognised by the political establishment, the Swedish people’s efforts for the climate will be negated. Put priority on measures with lasting effect,” encourages Fölster.

Focusing on national emissions is a wrong priority. Instead of trumpeted measures designed primarily to sooth climate guilt in the western world, go with measures with lasting climate effect. “A good example is cheap photovoltaic technology, also useful in poor countries, ahead of Sweden’s investment in doubtful ethanol,” says Fölster.

The report charts the research on the recoil effect and offers a solution through so-called global impact goals, that incorporate national measures affecting global carbon dioxide emissions.