Future EU Enlargement and the Single Market

At a time of geopolitical fragmentation and shifting global competition, a larger European Union – and a larger Single Market – can unlock new opportunities for trade, investment, and supply-chain integration.

Yet the resilience of an enlarged Union depends fundamentally on maintaining the integrity of the Single Market, where goods, services, capital, and people can move freely and compete fairly. For European and Swedish businesses, a well-functioning European Single Market is crucial for competitiveness, productivity, and growth. The EU’s internal market accounts for over 70 per cent of Sweden’s trade, and the integrity of this market is an important foundation for Swedish growth, investment and jobs.

A central condition for this is that candidate countries demonstrate genuine readiness for deeper integration through a merit-based process – by strengthening institutions, aligning with EU legislation, and ensuring stable and predictable market conditions. At the same time, enlargement is not a binary question of being ‘in or out’. Candidate countries are already integrating with the Single Market through multiple pathways: extensive trade agreements, EU funding, and participation in sectoral programmes, including in areas such as energy and transport.

The report presents the following key findings:

1. Compliance with EU acquis for the rule of law, efficient administration and functioning market economies is the foundation for a competitive Single Market. While several candidate countries are progressing, important challenges remain, and strengthening public administration, competition authorities, and courts must constitute a priority in the enlargement agenda.

2. Gradual integration facilitates economic cooperation with candidate countries primarily through trade agreements and selective sectoral cooperation. The main threat to the Single Market arises not from the current design of gradual integration instruments, but rather from weak enforcement by institutions in candidate countries.

3. Gradual integration instruments include safeguards such as conditional access to funding, suspension clauses, and the possibility of reversing market access. These mechanisms must be transparently and rigorously enforced to prevent competition distortions or negative impacts to the functioning of the Single Market.